Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Revenue & Buyback Execution (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Usual's model allocates up to 70% of protocol revenue to buy USUAL tokens off the market, with 30% paid weekly to stakers. This creates a direct link between protocol success (TVL, revenue from Treasury yields) and token demand. The team reported executing buybacks of 15.7M USUAL in July 2025 (Usual). Sustained revenue from its $556.8M TVL (as of July 2, 2026) is critical for this mechanism.

What this means: This is structurally bullish for USUAL's price, as it introduces a consistent, revenue-backed buyer. However, its impact depends entirely on the protocol's ability to maintain and grow its TVL and revenue streams. A decline in yields or TVL would weaken this primary support mechanism.

2. Stablecoin Adoption & Ecosystem Growth (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Price appreciation requires increased adoption of Usual's core products, USD0 and EUR0. Recent integrations like virtual IBANs for EUR transactions (The Defiant) and new vaults aim to boost utility. Exchange listings, such as on Biconomy in October 2025, improve liquidity and access.

What this means: Successful adoption is a slow, fundamental driver. While new features are positive, USUAL competes with giants like Tether and Circle, and its ~$14.9M market cap reflects its niche status. Growth in the broader RWA and stablecoin sector could lift USUAL, but it must capture meaningful market share to see significant price impact.

3. Altcoin Vulnerability & Macro Pressures (Bearish Impact)

Overview: USUAL exemplifies the extreme risk in small-cap altcoins. It hit an all-time low in July 2026, trading down 99.5% from its ATH (TokenPost). Its price is highly correlated with crypto market sentiment, currently in "Fear" territory (index 37). Furthermore, the protocol has faced exploit attempts (successfully mitigated in May 2025) and operates in an increasingly regulated stablecoin landscape.

What this means: This creates strong downward pressure. USUAL's price is likely to underperform in bearish macro conditions or if risk appetite wanes. Any security incident or negative regulatory development specific to RWAs or stablecoins could disproportionately impact confidence and price, regardless of the protocol's fundamentals.

Conclusion

USUAL's future price is a tug-of-war between its innovative, revenue-sharing tokenomics and its position as a high-risk altcoin in a volatile sector. For holders, the path to recovery relies on visible growth in TVL and stablecoin adoption to fuel buybacks, all while navigating unforgiving market cycles.
Will rising Treasury yields and successful European integrations provide enough fuel to overcome the intense selling pressure on small caps?