Usual (USUAL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Protocol Adoption & Revenue (Bullish Impact)

Overview: USUAL's value is intrinsically linked to the success of its stablecoins, USD0 and EUR0. The protocol generates revenue primarily from yield on the U.S. Treasury Bill and European sovereign bond collateral backing these stablecoins. A governance mechanism (Usual Docs) directs up to 70% of this revenue to buy back USUAL tokens, while 30% is distributed weekly to users who lock their USUAL (USUALx). Therefore, growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) and stablecoin adoption directly increases the buyback pressure and yield available to holders.

What this means: This creates a potentially bullish feedback loop. Increased usage of USD0/EUR0 boosts protocol revenue, leading to larger buybacks (reducing circulating supply) and more attractive staking rewards. This can increase demand for USUAL from users seeking yield and governance rights. Monitoring TVL and weekly revenue distributions (Usual) is key to gauging this driver's strength.

2. Security & Systemic Risk (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Usual Protocol operates in the high-risk DeFi environment. It has been targeted by hackers, with security firm BlockSec intervening to prevent a major exploit in May 2025 (CoinMarketCap). Furthermore, its USD0++ product temporarily depegged in early 2025 due to a governance decision (Bitrue). These events highlight risks from smart contract vulnerabilities, governance missteps, and the inherent complexity of blending RWAs with DeFi.

What this means: Any successful exploit or significant depegging event could severely damage user trust, leading to capital flight and a sharp decline in USUAL's price. While the team has launched a record $16 million bug bounty (CoinJournal), the bearish risk remains a constant overhang. Price stability depends on flawless operational security and peg integrity.

3. Market Sentiment & Competition (Mixed Impact)

Overview: USUAL's performance is tied to the broader altcoin market. The current Altcoin Season Index is neutral at 38, indicating capital is not aggressively rotating into smaller caps (CMC Charts). As a governance token for a niche (RWA-backed stablecoins), it must compete with major players like Tether and Circle, as well as other DeFi stablecoin protocols for liquidity and user mindshare.

What this means: In a strong "altcoin season," USUAL could see outsized gains as investors seek higher-beta DeFi projects. Conversely, during a market downturn or a "Bitcoin dominance" phase, it could underperform. Its multichannel expansions (e.g., to TAC blockchain (Usual)) are bullish for adoption but also increase its surface area in a competitive landscape. Success depends on executing its roadmap while navigating shifting market tides.

Conclusion

USUAL's future price is a direct function of real-world adoption metrics clashing with ever-present DeFi risks. For a holder, the key is watching whether revenue growth from USD0/EUR0 can outpace market volatility and systemic threats.

Can the protocol's TVL and weekly revenue distributions sustain an upward trend, solidifying the buyback-driven value accrual model?