Polymarket and Kalshi have crossed $150 billion in combined lifetime trading volume, but their record-setting run of monthly growth has begun to cool.
Polymarket and Kalshi hit $150 billion in total volume. Source: Kalshi
Polymarket and Kalshi have crossed $150 billion in combined lifetime trading volume, but their record-setting run of monthly growth has begun to cool.
At the same time, U.S. regulators are still weighing whether prediction markets belong in products built for fund investors, delaying the planned launch of event contract exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Fund approval is not the industry’s only regulatory test. Kalshi is expanding customer protections as state scrutiny builds, while Andreessen Horowitz has come to the industry’s defense in a jurisdictional fight among regulators.
Volumes Cool After Record Run
Prediction market monthly trading volumes are cooling. Source: The Block
Polymarket and Kalshi’s lifetime volumes hit a combined $150 billion in April, but the sector’s seven-month growth streak has come to an end, according to data from The Block.
The slowdown was concentrated on Polymarket’s global platform, where active traders fell to about 643,000 in April from more than 733,000 in March. Dollar volumes on Polymarket also declined, while notional volume fell across both Polymarket and Kalshi, according to The Block.
Still, platforms have continued expanding their regulatory and commercial footprints. Kalshi has gained traction in sports-related event contracts. Polymarket, meanwhile, is seeking to bring its main global marketplace back to U.S. users.
Kalshi also raised $1 billion in a new funding round led by Coatue Management, valuing the company at $22 billion, according to The New York Times. The company said its annualized trading volume has reached $178 billion, more than tripling over the past six months, while annualized revenue has topped $1.5 billion.
Kalshi is also pushing deeper into institutional trading. It recently executed its first custom block trade, and institutional trading volume on the platform has reportedly grown 800% over the past six months.
Event ETFs Face SEC Delay
The SEC has delayed the launch of six event contract ETFs. Source: CoinMarketCap
The first prediction-market ETFs are still awaiting SEC clearance after regulators delayed launches that had been expected this week, according to Reuters.
Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise filed in February to launch more than two dozen ETFs tied to elections, recessions, tech layoffs, oil prices, and other real-world events. The SEC is seeking more information on product mechanics and investor disclosures, though analysts expect the delay to be temporary.
The filings include warnings about regulation, litigation, insider trading, and potential investor losses. Roundhill also warned that if an event outcome is disputed or later revised, investor losses would be final.
Regulatory Fight Spurs New Guardrails
Andreessen Horowitz came to the industry’s defense in a May letter. Source: CoinMarketCap
The regulatory fight is pushing the industry to sharpen its case for mainstream acceptance.
Andreessen Horowitz recently backed the CFTC in the federal–state fight over prediction markets, arguing that state-by-state restrictions could limit access and drain liquidity.
In an 18-page letter, the venture firm said cease-and-desist letters and proposed state bans are creating a “serious barrier to impartial access” for users. It argued that forcing exchanges to block users based on where they live conflicts with CFTC rules that require fair market access.
The firm also framed prediction markets as tools for price discovery, saying they help reveal probabilities around uncertain events. State regulators, meanwhile, argue that some event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling.
At the same time, Kalshi rolled out customer-protection measures aimed at limiting underage access and enhancing account security. The updates include default Face ID for eligible users, selfie checks for higher-risk accounts, stronger promotion of two-factor authentication, and a tool for users to check whether someone else is logging in under their ID.
Kalshi also introduced trading-risk tools, including deposit-limit recommendations and an “Inner Circle” feature that lets users share account activity with friends or family.
In other news, Blockchain.com launched SnapMarkets, a non-U.S. platform for 30-second Bitcoin price bets starting at $1. The product pushes prediction-style trading into faster crypto markets.
By the Numbers
Bitcoin price at the end of 2026?
- $75,000-$79,999.99: 7.2%
- $80,000-$84,999.99: 7%
- $70,000-$74,999.99: 6.1%
- $85,000-$89,999.99: 5.9%
Source: CoinMarketCap
Ethereum price at the end of 2026?
- $2,250-$2,499.99: 10.3%
- $2,000-$2,249.99: 9.2%
- $1,750-$1,999.99: 8.6%
- $5,000+: 8.5%
Source: CoinMarketCap
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