Project Eleven warned quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin encryption by 2030, putting up to 6.9M BTC at risk.
Bitcoin News
Quantum security startup Project Eleven published a report on May 6 warning that Q-Day, the point at which quantum computers could break modern encryption, may arrive as early as 2030. The firm said a cryptographically relevant breakthrough is more likely than not by 2033, with estimates ranging a few years in either direction.
Project Eleven said quantum progress is unlikely to unfold gradually. It described the expected trajectory as compounding advances in hardware and algorithms that could produce a sudden jump in capability, characterized as "nothing, and then all at once."
Recent experimental results offer partial support for that assessment. A researcher used quantum hardware in April 2026 to derive a 15-bit elliptic curve key. That figure remains well below the 256-bit encryption standard currently protecting Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, but the test demonstrated measurable real-world progress.
Project Eleven estimated that roughly 6.9 million BTC, valued at more than $560 billion, could be exposed to quantum risk under certain conditions. Exposure applies primarily to coins held in older address formats that reveal public keys on-chain.
Preparing Bitcoin for a Post-Quantum World
The report applied a principle known as Mosca's Inequality to frame the urgency. The concept holds that if a system requires more time to upgrade than remains before a threat arrives, it is already behind schedule. Project Eleven said that logic applies directly to BTC wallet migration timelines.
Specific proposals for quantum-resistant upgrades are already circulating within the Bitcoin developer community. Paradigm researcher Dan Robinson outlined a method allowing BTC holders to prove wallet ownership through private timestamp proofs today. Those proofs could later be used to recover funds on a future quantum-safe version of the network without exposing on-chain activity.
BIP-361, proposed by developer Jameson Lopp and others, would create a multi-year migration window for users to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses. The proposal reflects concern that any network-wide transition will take years to execute at scale.
The urgency extends beyond the crypto sector. Google has moved its internal deadline for quantum-resistant cryptography to 2029, a timeline that reflects broader recognition across the technology industry that preparation windows may be shorter than previously assumed.
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